Predicting is difficult, especially for the future
Forecasting types have got a tricky job right now. Normally, we are quite happy for (credible-ish) sources to predict an imminent zombie apocalypse, since it makes a better headline and we are (sorry) at least partly in the entertainment business.
At the moment that does not apply. We do want to hear how bad things could get, but since it is fairly clear that the answer is Very Bad, there’s no need to spray paint blood on it. Sorry, that’s an awful image.
So I think there is more room than usual for optimism. No one wants to look a fool by predicting that everything will be normal by 2.30pm on Thursday week, but there must be scenarios where things turn out nothing like as bad as those folk stockpiling toilet paper seem to think.
One other thought: those PR surveys where a firm polls 50 people in Manchester to discover that 8 out of ten people really like the stuff the client is selling. Give ‘em a rest, just for now, eh?
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