On the panel:
- Patrick Jenkins – Financial Editor at the Financial Times
- Elisa Martinuzzi – EMEA Finance & Investing Managing Editor at Bloomberg
- Silvia Pavoni – Economics Editor at The Banker
- Peter Thal Larsen – EMEA Editor at Reuters Breakingviews
Ten years after the crash, are the markets in good shape to manage the challenges of 2019?
Our 4 panelists joined us for December’s Roxhill Breakfast event to discuss the future of the markets, and provide their insight into what we can expect next year.
Key points discussed:
- There’s been a big loss of trust in the industry. Before the crisis, people felt confident that senior bankers and politicians were broadly telling the truth. Over the last 10 years, the scepticism has spread, and nobody really knows who they can trust, and who has the right information.
- Regulators, policy makers, banks and various lawyers are starting to talk about emerging risks. These are issues that are far in the future and may not seem as imminent, but are crucial to consider when trying to predict what might come to have a catastrophic impact on banks and the whole economic system.
- Stock valuations tell us that investors have very little confidence that institutions will be returning adequately any time soon. Current levels aren’t far off from where we were at the depth of the financial crisis.
- Without an improved outlook for interest rates, a lot of banks are competing after the same commission-based income. On the trading side, European banks are fading and losing relevance on the global stage. European banks used to command about half of the global trading volumes (revenue-wise), and in the last 8 years that control has shrunk to 36%.
- European bank equity share prices are down nearly a third, over the past 12 months. Not only are these banks very thinly-profitable and able to generate very little additional capital under their own steam, but they’re trading at such discounts to their book value, that it would be very difficult and dilutive, should they needed to go to the market to raise capital.
Missed the event? Listen to the full podcast below:
Thank you to our panelists, UBS for hosting, and to everyone that joined us.
Alex Northcott, CEO at Roxhill Media
About Alex Northcott
Alex Northcott is the CEO at Roxhill Media. Alex founded Gorkana in 2003 and sold the business to Durrants in 2010, which became the Gorkana Group. In 2015 he set up Roxhill Media, the next generation media database. He has over 18 years’ experience in the PR industry having worked at Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan.
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