Summer’s shift

There was an interesting story buried away on the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre website last week. Under the snappy title “Global warming to reshuffle Europe’s tourism demand”, a piece reported findings of the first regional assessment of climate impact on European tourism, based on data from 269 European regions over a 20-year timespan.

It was packed with interesting nuggets if you care for that kind of thing: that Europe is the world’s most visited region (743 million people); that tourism generates 5 per cent of EU GDP directly and over 10 per cent indirectly. The headline take, however, was that projected global warming meant Cyprus, Greece, Spain and Italy and Portugal could lose up to 5 per cent of their tourism market to coastal France, Germany, Scandinavia, Ireland, Netherlands and United Kingdom. Should temperatures rise by 4˚C, Ionian tourism was projected to decline by 9.12 per while west Wales was forecast a 15.93 per cent rise.

Frankly, if temperatures rise by 4˚C, a fall in tourism is the least of our worries.

On one hand this adds academic rigour to what travel sections already knew – “coolcations” in July and August are more than a trend. As temperatures nudged over 44˚C, “apocalyptic” wildfires raged in Greece and Turkey last week. “Who fancies an apocalypse for holiday this year?” said no family ever, which is why you’ll look in vain for family pieces in southern Europe in travel sections at the moment.

Let’s now throw another buzzphrase into the mix: season-stretching. The JRC report also noted that 9 per cent of European travellers had switched their holiday months to take Mediterranean holidays in September and October, when temperatures (and prices) were more friendly. It’s no coincidence that TUI will fly to Crete until mid-November this year compared to late-October last or that it’s now offering southern Turkey year-round.

What all this means for press and PR is a massive shift in thinking. It’s time to unlearn the truism that family holidays mean sun, sea and sand on the Med’. If the region is becoming one for shoulder-season travel – i.e. May-June and September-November – that means a shift in the market thus a shift in story angles. For families, southern Europe may be out until half-term, but culture, food and soft activities for child-free couples and solo travellers are in. Perhaps hedonism too – Ibiza is up 30 per cent for October reports OTA loveholidays.com.

Seen like that, you’ve bought another month to pitch ideas until peak season begins. When one door closes, another opens.