Tomorrow's Business Today
The end of the world as we know it?
The float of SpaceX tomorrow is more than just a mega IPO.
If it goes really well, or really badly, it might define the business landscape for years.
It might become an example for PR and investor relations departments to justify all sorts of things the media and the markets would have previously dismissed as hooey.
A few numbers: SpaceX will raise $80bn giving it a value of $1.75 trillion. That’s about 95 times its revenues. Not profits. Just sales.
A third of the shares should go to retail investors, which is a good thing and a massive logistical exercise.
If they pull it off, it will be hard for others not to let in the small players.
If it is mired in technical chaos, like Facebook’s float was in 2012, then that might remind the authorities that buying into IPOs is really risky, and that we shouldn’t encourage people to bet their futures on them.
The authors of a new book, Muskism, describe the float of SpaceX as “financial fabulism”.
“The logic of financial fabulism treated imagined futures as already underway, allowing speculative claims to generate market effects before the underlying technology had matured,” they write.
So, if we pretend the crazed dreams of a few billionaires are real, they might become so.
In The Times Louisa Clarence-Smith says this moves America into a post-governance era.
“SpaceX goes well beyond the typical founder-control playbook, boasting an unsackable chief executive, chief technology officer and chairman (all of those positions will be filled by Musk, who will have around 80% of the voting rights), she notes.
So if it goes well, all the traditional guardrails that are in place to protect investors, to give them rights, go out of the window.
Who needs rules, the bankers can say. This one is literally going to Mars.
As such, we have a stake in how SpaceX turns out whether we want one or not.
The clever clogs at FT Alphaville have done the maths and concluded that even not having an opinion on SpaceX is going to cost you.
Even fund managers who think the valuation levels are absurd will buy the shares in fear.
If they do that and it flops, well, everyone was wrong. If they sit it out and it booms, they might well be fired.
Perhaps this mega share sale is more than just a big deal for markets, for investors, for AI and for space exploration.
Perhaps it is the last chance to rein in the tech titans before they truly own the world, are truly beyond the control of governments, regulators and lawyers.
Please send candidates for press release of the day to:
Press release of the day
What’s the most expensive country to be a football fan? Aspinline set to find out, looking at the cost of tickets, food, drink and transport.
The answer is: America, where it costs more to see a MLS match than it does one in the Premier League.
The Bundesliga in Germany has fan ownership rules which keep games relatively cheap.
There are some nice looking charts.
Stories that will keep rolling
1) Ryanair investigated over charging parents to sit with children. BBC
2) Doomscrolling generation lacks the skills for work. The Telegraph
3) ECB raises interest rates for first time in three years. The Times
4) Young, ambitious and out of work. The Guardian
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