In the run up to the last Iraq War in 2003, a majority of Britons thought the invasion was correct, the right call.
Asked 20 years later, the percentage of people in favour of military action was at just 23%.
It wasn’t just that they had changed their minds in light of events. Many thought they had always been against it, even though the polling clearly suggested otherwise.
That issue – False Recall – is playing out right now and it seems to be affecting the Tories in particular.
So, if a pollster asks someone how they will vote at the next general election, about 30% say Reform.
Asked how they voted last time, a large number of them still say Reform.
But they didn’t. They voted Conservative last time, they’ve just forgotten.
At Findoutnow.co.uk* we can see this, because we asked them a year ago and can compare their answers. We know what they said they did last time and can see when it clashes.
It isn’t necessarily that they are lying; people just change their minds or forget things more often than they realise.
Here is a chart which lays out the Reform voters with False Recall.
For the Conservatives, this is potentially really bad news.
Today’s Reform voter is someone the Tories think they had already lost. They hadn’t; it’s likely to be a recent departure.
So they think the swing away from them is 20% to Reform. It’s more like 30%.
Here is an older YouGov poll which shows how people “forgot” they voted for Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.
The false recall issue is plainly going to be a factor in the next general election.
A few thoughts on what this means for both the business world and the political world when they are doing consumer research, whether it is attitudes to tax or attitudes to Hellman’s Mayonnaise.
- People are bad at saying what they used to think
- People are bad at predicting their future behaviour
- People often forget things or change their mind
- So because of that, take polls which involve comparing what people think now with what they thought before with more than the usual dose of salt
Polling in general is getting better, more sophisticated. Just not without fail.
*Other pollsters are available.
Simon is a partner at Find Out Now.
Please send candidates for press release of the day to: Simon.english@roxhillmedia.com
