Tomorrow's Business Today
The Trump trade PR risk to the City
There has to be serious money to be made on the so-called Trump trade – which is not one thing, but a series of ideas about what might crash or soar in light of the new President’s policies.
Some clever or lucky few will get really rich.
(Some are instead betting on the end of the world, but I don’t get how they cash in when they are right.)
There is a good chance that most of the big gains have already happened – Tesla, Bitcoin, the dollar and big oil, all on the up.
There is an equally good chance that investment houses, City brokers and the rest will try to persuade clients that the bandwagon is still rolling, and that it is time for them to jump.
The fund industry has always done this.
When Emerging Markets rocketed in the 1990s, respectable City fund managers launched emerging markets funds aimed at small investors.
In private, they would admit this was a marketing led initiative aimed at clients who wouldn’t go near such funds if they weren’t being regularly bigged-up in the financial press.
They couldn’t get such a fund away when the shares were low, which would be the more rational time to buy.
So they launched at the top, took their fees, and presented all this as merely serving the desires of clients when it went wrong later.
FT columnist and self-described Cassandra Rana Foroohar, says she is “already dreading the downturn that must surely come at some point during Donald Trump’s presidency. Yes, the short-term sugar high of deregulation and tax cuts is already upon us. But, judging by history, the US is way overdue for both a recession and a big market correction, and the risk vectors in play with Trump make it more likely.”
If she is right, which she probably is, there are going to be a lot of investors with more than just hurt feelings. Some, who perhaps never bought financial securities before, are going to be wiped out.
Meanwhile, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev says the UK’s attitude to crypto investing is “backwards”, something he intends to change.
Warnings about the number of young men showing up in NHS gambling clinics addicted to trading cryptocurrencies bother him not a jot.
The messages from the CEO of NHS England Amanda Pritchard indicate that not only will all this stuff end in tears, in many cases it already has.
We also learn today that Hargreaves Lansdown is still being sued by 5000 investors over its promotion of Neil Woodford’s collapsed equity fund.
The basis for the claim is not that they lost money, it is that HL was still marketing Woodford right up until the day his fund collapsed.
That was five years ago. (HL has no comment, but it must wish it had handled this differently).
This feels like one of those times when the PR Department needs to rein in the Marketing Department – to show them who is boss around here.
To tell them that every pound they make now is a potential month in court later.
At least, they better be sure they are offering sufficient warnings about the risks of investment, so that the regulators can’t clobber them for being reckless.
Please send candidates for press release of the day to: Simon.english@roxhillmedia.com
Press release of the day
What’s the difference in performance between ESG funds and conventional investments?
Joachim Klement at Panmure Liberum has a deep dive into the subject here with what he says is the “most sophisticated test of ESG fund returns” yet.
Under the Trump era, will ESG funds boom or wither? A good topic for the money pages and wider than that.